2017 Golden Globes Predictions Part 1: Movies

Photo Credit:http://www.irishtimes.com/culture/film/golden-globes-2017-irish-talent-racks-up-the-nominations-1.2902671

Happy New Year! The Golden Globes are already this weekend. Hollywood’s biggest party will dish out their always surprising picks for the best in film and television of the past year on Sunday. Here are our predictions for the winners, as well as who should win in bunch of cases where the winner might not be the most deserving.

 

Best Picture – Drama:

Photo Credit:https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/sep/03/moonlight-review-devastating-drama-is-vital-portrait-of-black-gay-masculinity-in-americaWeird that Hacksaw Ridge and Lion got in here over ArrivalSilence, or Nocturnal Animals, huh? Well you can count them both out. Same with the strong but not strong enough Hell or High Water. The biggest award of the night is a heated battle between the awards friendly Manchester By the Sea and the innovative masterpiece Moonlight. In year following controversy surrounding diversity in Hollywood, expect the HFPA to award the film that addresses concerns, while also flat-out being the best film of the year. Will/Should Win: Moonlight

 

Best Picture – Musical or Comedy:

Photo Credit:http://variety.com/t/la-la-land/

Despite being one of the most stacked categories at this year’s ceremony (who doesn’t love DeadpoolSing Street, or 20th Century Women?), unless your name is Damien Chazelle, 2016 was not your year. It’s La La Land‘s to lose. Will/Should Win: La La Land

 

Best Director:

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If you ignore Tom Ford, whose Nocturnal Animals was neglected in the Best Picture race, and Mel Gibson, who just isn’t really in the conversation at all, this is a tight race. Kenneth Longergan is more likely to get awarded for his screenplay, but he could still shut out Barry Jenkins or Damien Chazelle. But the race is closest between those two. Since La La Land is the exact type of film the HFPA would adore, expect Chazelle to grab it, even if Jenkins is a little more deserving. Will Win: Damien Chazelle for La La Land / Should Win: Barry Jenkins for Moonlight

 

Best Actor – Drama:

Photo Credit:http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/2017-aarp-nominations-movies-grownups-awards-956675

The race here that’ll likely carry on all the way to the Oscars is Casey Affleck versus Denzel Washington. But a sexual assault scandal doesn’t bode well for Affleck, who admittedly gives the slightly lesser performance. Will/Should Win: Denzel Washington for Fences

 

Best Actress – Drama:

Photo Credit:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/04/movies/elle-starring-isabelle-huppert-as-a-rape-victim-who-turns-the-tables-rivets-critics.htmljackie-natalie-portman-today-161006-tease-01_e549f017f2a99114fefe91579e669542-today-inline-large

Jessica Chastain is really the only definite “no” here. Though Ruth Negga hasn’t quite caught the wave of momentum Amy Adams or Isabelle Huppert have. Expect the HFPA to honor the legendary Huppert for her varied body of work, even if Natalie Portman delivered a career best in JackieWill Win: Isabelle Huppert for Elle / Should Win: Natalie Portman for Jackie

 

Best Actor – Musical or Comedy:

Photo Credit:http://www.dnaindia.com/entertainment/report-la-la-land-twas-indeed-ryan-gosling-playing-the-piano-through-the-movie-2287127Photo Credit:http://www.businessinsider.com/deadpool-end-credits-explained-2016-2

For a bit of a slow year for this category (Jonah Hill for War Dogs?), expect the La La Land train to run through and grab another statue here, this time for Ryan Gosling. If we’re all deeply and truly honest with ourselves though, I know we all want to see Ryan Reynolds win for the already iconic DeadpoolWill Win: Ryan Gosling for La La Land / Should Win: Ryan Reynolds for Deadpool

 

Best Actress – Musical or Comedy:

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Sure, Annette Bening is wonderful in 20th Century Women, and you should never really count out Meryl Streep, but what Emma Stone does in La La Land is one for the ages. A complicated, versatile, and surprisingly subtle performance, considering the genre, expect Stone to walk home with the globe. Will/Should Win: Emma Stone for La La Land

 

Best Supporting Actor:

Photo Credit:http://www.memphisflyer.com/memphis/moonlight/Content?oid=5059231

It’s Mahershala Ali’s to lose. Jeff Bridges could stage an upset, but it’s unlikely, while the rest of nominations are a bit perplexing. Ali has been in the conversation since the beginning and is easily the most deserving. Will/Should Win: Mahershala Ali for Moonlight

 

Best Supporting Actress:

Photo Credit:http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/cannes-2015-photo-casey-affleck-796147Photo Credit:http://ew.com/article/2016/10/23/viola-davis-campaign-supporting-actress-fences/

How Michelle Williams has gained so much traction here is anyone’s guess. She’s great when she’s in Manchester By the Sea, but she’s barely in it. Then there’s Viola Davis, who dares to steal much of Fences right under Denzel Washington. It’s a beautiful, difficult performance, the type you hope the HFPA will award. Will Win: Michelle Williams for Manchester By the Sea / Should Win: Viola Davis for Fences

 

Best Screenplay: 

Photo Credit:http://www.cbsnews.com/news/review-heart-wrenching-manchester-by-the-sea/

If Manchester By the Sea is ignored elsewhere, this is where I expect it’ll get its much deserved due. Moonlight and La La Land provide ample competition, but expect Kenneth Longergan’s masterful, meticulous writing to power through and win the globe. Will/Should Win: Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester By the Sea

 

Best Foreign Language Film:

Photo Credit:http://cinema-scope.com/festivals/battle-humour-maren-ade-toni-erdmann/Photo Credit:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/04/movies/elle-starring-isabelle-huppert-as-a-rape-victim-who-turns-the-tables-rivets-critics.html

Always difficult to predict what the HFPA will do here, but the biggest films in the conversation seem to be ElleThe Salesman, and Toni Erdmann. Of the three, Toni Erdmann has picked up remarkable traction in the past month, where Elle, aside from Isabelle Huppert’s performance, has lost some. Still, France’s psycho-sexual black comedy is likely the most unique, and best film nominated. Will Win: Toni Erdmann / Should Win: Elle

 

Best Animated Film: 

Photo Credit:http://video.disney.com/watch/moana-official-us-teaser-trailer-534f406ea165d8e8ecdc95d8Photo Credit:http://video.disney.com/watch/moana-official-us-teaser-trailer-534f406ea165d8e8ecdc95d8

Sing is the only one to easily write off. Kubo and the Two Strings and My Life as a Zucchini have critical support, but this is most likely a race between Disney’s two excellent efforts in 2016. Moana is fresher in voters’ minds, but Zootopia is definitely the better film. Will Win: Moana / Should Win: Zootopia

 

Best Original Song:

We’ve had all year it seems to fall in love with, get sick of, and come back around to “Can’t Stop the Feeling!,” to the point where maybe voters are over it regardless. Another La La Land win here is possible, but “City of Stars,” while great, isn’t the best song from the film. But then there’s “How Far I’ll Go,” a great number from Moana that also gives the HFPA a chance to give Lin-Manuel Miranda a much-deserved award. Will/Should Win: “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana

 

Best Original Score:

Photo Credit:http://variety.com/t/la-la-land/

Some perplexing nominations here again (where’s Jackie?), but it doesn’t really matter because Justin Hurwitz is here for La La Land. It’s great to see the powerful, operatic Moonlight score get recognized, but don’t kid yourself. La La Land is all about its music, even when there aren’t lyrics to it. Will/Should Win: Justin Hurwitz for La La Land

 

 

Who do you think will take home the awards on Sunday night? Let us know in the comments below!

 

By Matt Dougherty

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